The aims of the report are:
- to explain the considerations in looking long at such a complex, integrated food sector
- outline the macro settings affecting the next decade
- explain the composition and assumptions made in the baseline outlook
- describe the features of the four divergent scenarios
- identify and explain the major demand and supply influences affecting those scenarios
The initial 2023 report contents are structured as per the diagram on the right. The LongView report will be updated at least on an annual basis to reflect changes in the factors and events that affect the medium to long term outlook, and the restate the Baseline outlook.
As this process evolves, the content will be extended to address emerging influences and agendas. Some of these updates will be “deep-dives” into subjects that warrant greater attention, which can be based on subscriber feedback.
The LongView DTS Model
This product provides the option for the user to access the scenario modelling tool that has been used in preparing this analysis, so that the key assumptions and the composition of the future scenarios can be altered to test different opinions and/or assess the materiality of important assumptions.
The analysis platform is an extension of Freshagenda’s Global Dairy Directions platform which provides a rolling market outlook for the short and long term for global dairy markets. We extended our analysis adapting our short-term tool, the Dairy Trade Simulator (DTS), to provide a long-term framework which is possesses sufficient rigour and complexity in assumption scope – but broad enough to suit long-term analysis – that can examine those questions.
We have adapted this into a Longview DTS based on higher-level variables, using quarterly intervals, to generate a commodity balance sheet and commodity values in each region.
Model structure and capabilities
The tool is designed as a simulator – to enable a user to examine and test the outlook based on different opinions as to the implications of issues or test what could happen over time based on “what-if” variations.
The functionality of the tool includes:
- Variations to assumptions the base outlook can be saved and used as a new base outlook
- It comes pre-loaded with a baseline outlook as well as the four scenarios
- The scenario tools allow loading of each scenario for comparison. Scenarios can be changed and resaved as new scenarios
- Access to detailed demand and supply workings supporting important drivers of the future outcome
- A climatic variability or “what-if” analysis to assess the impact on milk production and projected commodity values
Important insights will be highlighted on our website, and profiled in the regular Horizons newsletter.