The spine of calorific demand growth

Forecasting the evolution of food and dairy markets in the developing world is one of the key aspects of the LongView platform

The history of the growth in food markets in developing regions of the world can be reflected in relative calorific intakes.

Research has shown that calorie intake is significantly determined by per capita income, income distribution, income growth, urbanization, food aid and socio‐cultural factors.

The most widely used and comprehensive data on food supply and consumption is published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), through which data is annually available (extending back to 1961) and is updated periodically.

The development of dairy demand in developing regions, stripped down to their nutritional components in diet, reflect varying relationships at regional and individual country levels between income and butterfat and protein intake.

With available forecasts of future demographic change and income growth – impacted by the effects of COVID – this provides a foundation for projecting demand-side capacity in developing regions.

What does this impact?

Our LongView analysis has observed relationships between incomes, general calorific intakes and the development of dairy fat and protein demand in the past, which reconciles to available dairy production and trade data at a country level. Using economic forecasts made by OECD, we have generated a theoretical demand growth through the outlook period.