Scenario 1: Industrial calories

Expansive & destructive

Global consensus to advance food security and trade took priority over multilateral climate change policies. Politics put a greater emphasis (for the sake of peace) on securely feeding growing populations, while containing healthcare costs caused by aging and poor dietary choices.

Climate and CO2e reduction policies were not unilaterally enforced. A global ETS was nonetheless implemented which reflected differing commitments to address emissions, resulting in CBAM tariffs on food items.

Large scale production, breakthrough efficiency and scientific agility was deployed in all aspects of farm to ingredient chain enabling affordable dairy nutrition for diverse destinations. Concentration of investments and technology adds industrial efficiency/yield, and food production growth is concentrated in highly productive, resource-rich origins.

Existing food production juggernauts become more industrialized, strongly increasing efficiency from the farm to ingredient manufacturing. Collaboration to feed the world, innovation is widely shared to drive higher production.

For dairy:

Milk production surges in major producers with yield improvements and fewer constraints on their livestock footprints, with less regard for environmental impacts in sensitive regions. Cheap food and ingredients support growth in developed world consumption of dairy staples.

Trade with developing regions grows, aided by stronger global income growth with improved global cohesion. Higher output keeps prices affordable in those markets. Expanding food supplies come at the expense of healthy diets and increases impacts on scarce resources.