Scenario 3: Focus local

Domestic affluence

Consumers and producers balance ecological conservation and economic prudence through low friction trade access enabling a sustainable access to balanced and reliably available nutrition.

Dislocations to global harmony on climate change, COVID and war reconstruction and trade forced a stronger focus on national food security, healthy diets, while increasing inequity between nations.

Increased life expectancy, health spending and lifestyle diseases drove higher requirement for ingredient and production traceability in developed markets. Higher income concentration, awareness and demand for customization created stronger demand for individualized nutrition – at a price.

Collaboration on climate change and reducing emissions was thwarted by political short-termism. Major initiatives were driven by commercial supply chains and countries that see positioning opportunities.

A breakdown in global co-operation in trade and greater protectionism resulted from concern for local farmers and consumers. Self-sufficiency is a priority, with a greater focus by consumers in affluent regions on sustainable local foods and healthier diets, at rising prices without the strong focus on scale.

For dairy:

Milk output contracts with pressure on dairy’s footprint.

Prices in local markets are more divergent with high value segments but overall domestic use in big producers falls. Higher export availability will increase exposure to commodities. There will be faster development of existing production in regions which are somewhat reliant on imports, but those countries without secure supplies and resilient resources face greater hunger and affordability pressures.